Starting in playback mode, the green LED blinks twice. Using on/off button to start, the lens extends immediately and other than the card being locked, appears ready to shoot.
Those two results strongly suggest that you do not have your SD card correctly configured to autoboot CHDK. Given your issues with getting STICK running, that seems to be the most likely scenerio.
The initial bootstrap code for the G16 is common to all four camera models. If there was an bug in the G16 1.01b startup code I would expect the camera to simply crash. While it is tchnically possible that a bug could cause the camera to load normally and not hook in CHDK, I don't believe that is what is happening. I can add blinking LED code to the G16 boot loader and post a test build to confirm that if necessary.
Did you hear anything back from zeno (Dave) about your STICK issues? He is usually pretty responsive and I have his direct email address somewhere if you have not heard from him. The usual ulprit here is not running STICK with admin privileges. I'm not sure you can do that via the Windows right click "Run as admin" option - you might need to pick the right script from the STICK install. Unfortunately Dave bundles everything for Windows / Linux / iMac into the same directory with similar nondescript names so people sometimes get this step confused.
Also, STICK produces a log file - it would be interesting if you could post that here as an attachment.
This should not be so difficult - sorry about that. There are other methods of configuring a bootable SD card (listed on the wiki page that I linked) but they require a lot more patience to get them to work correctly.